Men’s NCAA Tournament Challenge early bracket trends and notes

The Men’s NCAA Tournament in March is the most exciting time of year. A lot can happen during this short period, and we’re here to help you get on top of all the action. Here are some quick notes and early bracket trends for your enjoyment!

The “men’s tournament challenge bracket” is a website that predicts the outcomes of the Men’s NCAA Tournament. The site has been around since 2003 and has an impressive record of accuracy.

14th of March, 2022

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  ESPN’s Kyle Soppe

We’ve spent weeks discussing bubble teams, conference champions, and bracketology, but now is the time to sign up and fill out your brackets for the 2022 men’s NCAA tournament.

Choosing the appropriate Four Finalists is challenging, particularly with the depth of national title contenders including as Gonzaga, Duke, and Kansas. As the public fills out their first brackets, who are the most popular teams? What have been the recent trends in underdogs and upsets?

Here are some early 2022 ESPN Tournament Challenge bracket patterns, as well as a look back at some chosen NCAA tournament outcomes from the previous year.

Free to play ESPN Men’s Tournament Challenge!

The brackets are now open! Fill out your bracket today at Men’s Tournament Challenge! Make a Bracket

Tuesday, 8 p.m. (Eastern Standard Time) Update:

After two days, here’s how your choices are looking:

Champion

1. Gonzaga (1-seed) has a 27.1 percent chance of winning.

2. Arizona (1-seed) has a 13 percent chance of winning.

3. 8.3 percent for Kansas (1-seed).

4. 6.7 percent for Kentucky (2-seed).

5. 6.4 percent for Duke (2-seed). (With two of the top five winners hailing from the West Region, it’s the section of the bracket that might devolve into pandemonium if an outsider wins.)

Raise your hand if you’ve heard in the last 48 hours, “yes, those teams are excellent, but I can’t choose ALL the favorites.” So, if people aren’t choosing the best seeds, what are they doing? The top four choices who aren’t 1-seeds to reach each of the listed rounds are as follows:

The Final Eight: (the four 1-seeds rank 1-2-3-4 in Elite Eight pick percentage)

Four Finalists

Finals at the national level:

• Kentucky (2-seed) has a 12.5 percent chance of winning.

• 10.4 percent for Duke (2-seed).

• 10.3 percent for Auburn (2-seed).

• Tennessee (3-seed) has a 10% chance of winning.

Champion of the country:

• 6.7 percent for Kentucky (2-seed).

• 6.4 percent for Duke (2-seed).

• Auburn (2-seed) has a 4.3 percent chance of winning.

• Tennessee (3-seed) has a 4.2 percent chance of winning.

Favorite, but not by a long shot

There are four teams seeded four or better being projected to win it all in fewer than 1.5 percent of brackets if you want to choose a favorable seed without choosing a popular champion:

Specially agitated

In the Sweet 16, the most frequent double digit seeds are penciled in.

1. 18.9% for Virginia Tech (11-seed). (In all, they are the 23rd most common Sweet 16 selection.) That may not seem like a high rating, but consider that it’s a greater percentage than a few well-profile teams, such as Texas, North Carolina, and Michigan State, which made it onto a better seed line.)

2. 12.5 percent for Michigan (11-seed).

3. 10.8 percent Loyola Chicago (10-seed)

4. 9.8 percent for Iowa State (11th seed).

The first four

Prior to kickoff, 22.9 percent of brackets had Indiana and Wyoming winning their Thursday matchup against Saint Mary’s. With that percentage, they are presently the most popular 12-seed to make it to the weekend.

10 p.m. EST on Monday Update:

In 53.7 percent of brackets, the top seed wins it all (last season: 67.5 percent )

1. Gonzaga has a 27.8% success rate (sat at 34.5 percent in the 4 hours following the bracket release)

2. Arizona has a 12.4% unemployment rate. (Through four hours, these two teams accounted for 44.2 percent of champion selections, and although that percentage has dropped, they seem to be cementing themselves as the top tier of championship picks.)

3. 8.2 percent in Kansas

4. Baylor has a 5.2 percent chance of winning.

The most popular non-first-seeds to slash the nets

1. 6.6 percent for Duke

2. 6.5 percent in Kentucky

3. 4.3 percent in Auburn

4. 4.2 percent in Tennessee

The Great Ten-sion

Much of the early commentary has been about fading the Big 10 as a whole, and it seems that many are backing up their words with brackets:

• Wisconsin ranks 14th in percentage of champion choices despite having one of the top players in the NCAA and winning the Big 10 regular season championship (1.2 percent )

• Illinois was eliminated before the Sweet 16 in the majority of brackets (gone before then in 52.9 percent of brackets)

• Purdue is the least-favorite 3-seed to advance to the Sweet 16. (63 percent )

• Ohio State is the least likely 7-seed to win the first round (51.5 percent )

Seeding is just a number.

As Keith Lipscomb points out, No. 6 seeds have only won three of the four encounters in the last seven tournaments, and they have a losing record versus No. 11 seeds since 2010. (21-23). So far, the first round selection rates for 11-seeds have been:

• Michigan (with a 53.3 percent advantage against Colorado State) (In a Big 10 school, here is where people tend to be hopeful!)

• 51.3 percent for Virginia Tech over Texas

• Iowa State has a 37 percent advantage against LSU.

• The winner of the Rutgers/ND game has been blindly promoted beyond Alabama in 27.1 percent of brackets despite the lack of a clear team.)

Don’t call it a snafu.

Among the teams included in our annual Giant Killers article, notable pick rates include:

• Vermont, the 13th seed, won 19.9% of the vote over Arkansas. – Giant Killer has a 36 percent chance of causing an upset.

• South Dakota State (over Providence), No. 13 seed: 26.3 percent – Giant Killer has a 40% chance of causing an upset.

• Colgate, the 14th seed, has a 10% chance of beating Wisconsin. – Potential for a Giant Killer upset: 18%

Update @ 3 p.m. EST on Monday

Champions of well-known tournaments include:

1. 34.5 percent for Gonzaga

2. 9.7 percent in Arizona

3. Kansas is at 6.9%.

4. 5.7 percent for Duke

Unprecedented first-round shocks (double-digit seeding) include:

1. Michigan, the 11th seed, received 42.1 percent of the vote.

2. Virginia Tech, the 11th seed, received 41.9 percent of the vote.

3. Loyola-Chicago, ranked tenth, has a 37.9% chance of winning.

4. Miami, a 10-seed, has a 33.3 percent chance of winning.

5. Iowa State, the 11th seed, has a 30% chance of winning.

Winners of the 8-9 games by consensus

• Memphis is a 9-seed (over Boise State)

• North Carolina is the eighth seed in the tournament (over Marquette)

• San Diego State is a No. 8 seed (over Creighton)

• Seton Hall is an 8-seed in the NCAA tournament (over TCU)

Recap of the year 2021

Last season, chalk won the championship battle, as two of the top three most popular teams to win it all made it to the season’s final game (Gonzaga and Baylor). The Bears won, as predicted by 10.4 percent of brackets. It wasn’t, however, a powdery month of craziness.

Seed No. 1 Illinois was the second most popular champion (15.2 percent) in brackets, and the majority (51.8 percent) predicted the Illini to win their area, yet they led for precisely 0 seconds in their second-round defeat to 8-seed Loyola-Chicago.

No. 11 seed UCLA required overtime in the play-in game. The Bruins then advanced to the Four Finalists (winning three of those four games by 10-plus points) before losing on the miracle Jalen Suggs buzzer-beater in overtime. Only 34% of brackets had UCLA winning a single game, and under 1% (0.9%) had UCLA in the Four Finalists.

Last season, you required the following number of right selections in each of the first three rounds to remain ahead of the competition:

• Round 1 consists of 22 games out of a total of 32. (35.9 percent of brackets accomplished this)

• Round 2 consists of eight games out of a total of sixteen (29.8 percent of brackets accomplished this)

• Round 3 consists of four games out of a total of eight (33.1 percent of brackets accomplished this)

The “march madness bracket challenge” is a game that people play to find out who they think will win the NCAA Tournament. It’s a great way to get in on some March Madness action before it starts.

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